Space assets are the most important enabler, and most significant vulnerability, in a superpower conflict. The U.S. government knows it and It’s why we have the Space Force and organizations like SDA. But while we are starting to scale and support a surging New Space industry China can, in some respects, surge faster:

China is growing its military capabilities in space at a “breathtaking pace” to counter the American satellites in orbit and improve its ability to monitor and target forces on Earth, according to the head of the US Space Command.

America’s top strategic challenger is seeking to develop advanced space weaponry and making advances in satellite meteorology, human spaceflight and robotic space exploration, General Stephen Whiting said during a hearing Thursday of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

We still hold the advantage but we could lose it surprisingly quickly if we don’t properly prioritize space. The coming decades will require the same level of focus and investment in the domain that we have poured into naval and air power. The time to build the infrastructure for rapid industrialized production and delivery of space assets is now. Thankfully we’re doing that with responsive space initiatives at companies like Rocket Lab, Terran Orbital, and Firefly. It’s a start, but we will need to do more.

There’s been a fair amount of drama and geopolitical intrigue surrounding Rivada Space Network’s proposed 600 satellite OuterNET constellation. The drama started with a spectrum licensing battle with China, which would have been enough, but didn’t end when the ITU licenses were secured and a $2.4 billion contract to build 300 of the satellites was awarded to Terran Orbital. In fact, It was just getting started. Rivada then apparently ran into delays securing a significant amount of funding for the constellation from a sovereign wealth fund. I say “apparently” because the details about this event, and every other element in this saga, remain murky and mostly unconfirmed. Whatever the reason (again reportedly geopolitical), the delay then resulted in a very high profile missed payment to Terran Orbital which caused significant problems for the small satellite builder at a critical (and expensive) point in its evolution into a highly automated rapid satellite manufacturing powerhouse.

There’s more drama, if you can believe it, but most of it isn’t worth covering here and will hopefully be forgotten as Rivada has finally made a payment:

Following the receipt of long-due payment, management has confirmed that Rivada has settled all existing outstanding invoices. However, the exact payment amount has been kept confidential by the involved parties. Nevertheless, owing to this payment, Terran Orbital is set to report an excess of $70 million year end cash balance as of Dec 31, 2023. It is a significant sequential uptick from the $38.7 million reported in the September quarter.

This will bolster the company’s financial stability and enable diligent execution of strategic objectives. These developments are expected to boost investors’ confidence. Additionally, Rivada is expected to make further milestone payments in fiscal 2024. Terran Orbital remains confident about fulfilling its delivery commitments per the Rivada contract within the scheduled time frame of 2025 to 2026.

While details aren’t as clear as many would like, this appears to be a win-win. This arrangement should allow Rivada to break up large block payments and production runs into more granular milestones that will allow them to better manage cash as they make the final push to secure funding and onboard OuterNET partners around the globe. At least that what appears to be happening from this vantage point. Meanwhile, Terran Orbital gets paid, can manage risk, and can help setup their partner (and themselves) for long-term success. If it works, as it increasingly looks like it will, they should both benefit substantially.

The interest in new space from the defense and intelligence sectors seems to be rapidly accelerating. This trend has been underway for some time but has seemingly recently accelerated due to the declining state of the world and likelihood that it will get much worse before it gets better. I expect demand to grow exponentially as capabilities like responsive launch and rapid satellite production increasingly become the new norm - just another industrial sector with persistent production. I haven’t been active here lately (also due to the declining state of the world) so here’s a roundup of a some of the defense related space stories I have been tracking:

Space Force sees SATCOM awards surging to $20 billion this fiscal year

As the Space Force looks to modernize its military satellite communications and positioning, navigation and timing capabilities, its acquisition command is preparing to award contracts for programs in fiscal 2024 worth some $20 billion. The total value of the contracts to be solicited this fiscal year, which began Oct. 1, is an exponential increase from the $1.6 billion awarded across the SATCOM and PNT portfolios in fiscal 2023, according to Cordell DeLaPena, the Space Systems Command program executive officer who oversees those programs.

Outer Space Becoming Contested Domain for Supremacy with Space-Based Communications, Intelligence Assets, Anti-Satellite Weapons, First Committee Hears

Divergent Views Emerge on Way Forward, with Some Seeking Political Commitments to Avert Danger, Others, Legally Binding Accords

DoD developing strategy to tap commercial space market

Seeking to capitalize on commercial space capabilities, the Pentagon’s space policy office is crafting a strategy to harness emerging technologies for national security purposes. An area of particular interest is in-space logistics services such as satellite refueling. “This strategy will outline the department’s priorities and approach as it relates to integrating commercial capabilities into DoD’s architecture,” said John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy. DoD’s commercial space integration strategy is “for the whole department,” and is a separate effort from the one being developed by the U.S. Space Force

In annual report to Congress, Pentagon highlights China’s ‘refusal to engage’

With regard to space, the report notes that China is closing once-wide gaps with U.S. space capabilities, increasing the possibility it could gain the advantage in a future conflict through attacks on American satellites. The Pentagon sees this as a major challenge. Among China’s anti-satellite weapons that DoD worries about are ground-based missiles and high-power lasers, satellites with robotic arms able to grab other satellites, cyber-attack capabilities and other systems that could jam, blind, or disable U.S. satellites.

Navy charts massive transformation in shipboard IT as commercial 5G, satellite links join the fleet

In “blue water” environments far from shore, most of the potential for better connectivity to DoD’s networks and the public Internet lies in P-LEO constellations. Although Starlink is the best-known, other commercial providers are developing their own large fleets with global coverage, and the Space Development Agency is contracting for a DoD-specific “transport layer” for global communications. The difference in throughput is huge: Right now, military SATCOM capabilities provide perhaps one or two megabits of bandwidth to each ship — a tiny fraction of what most residential Internet customers get at home. P-LEO networks can deliver hundreds of megabits at a time to each ship.

Spaceplane Vs Satellite Duel In First Space Force Painting Is Telling

The artwork depicts a futuristic U.S. Space vehicle intercepting an adversary satellite, who in turn is positioning to disable a friendly satellite," according to the Space Force. “The bay doors of the intercept vehicle are opening as the space plane moves into position and prepares to defend the friendly satellite.

Space Force planning $8 billion satellite architecture for nuclear command and control

The Space Force is gearing up for a major procurement of strategic communications satellites that provide nuclear-survivable communications for the U.S. military and national command authorities. The Space Systems Command expects to issue a request for proposals in early 2024 for the Evolved Strategic Satellite Communications System (ESS) constellation, a program estimated to be worth $8 billion.

Space Force sets sights on small geostationary communications satellites

The U.S. Space Force is exploring the use of small geosynchronous satellites to enhance military communications networks — either through purchased commercial services or government-owned constellations. “We’re trying to leverage new capabilities from the commercial industry,” Clare Hopper, chief of the Space Force’s Commercial Satellite Communications Office, said Oct. 19 at the annual MilSat Symposium in Mountain View, California.

Rocket Lab sees rapid demand for its HASTE hypersonic test vehicle

Brian Rogers, senior director of global launch services, told C4ISRNET that because of the Pentagon’s hypersonic flight testing push, he expects demand for HASTE to continue to grow as the company logs more flights. “Leadership across DoD has talked about this as a problem that needs solving,” he said in a Sept. 28 interview. “I don’t see the threat environment changing much and so I think from a demand signal, it is only increasing.

Terran Orbital Awarded $7.7 Million Lockheed Martin Contract

Last year, Terran Orbital delivered 10 satellite buses to Lockheed Martin in support of their Tranche 0 Transport Layer contract with SDA. Terran Orbital is currently building 42 buses for Lockheed Martin to help the company fulfill its $700 million contract for the SDA’s Tranche 1 Transport Layer (T1TL), currently scheduled for a late 2024 launch, and, as previously announced this week, Terran Orbital was just awarded 36 buses to help the company fulfill its $816 million contract for the SDA’s Tranche 2 Transport Layer (T2TL), currently scheduled for late 2026.

Chinese firm sold satellites for intelligence to Russia’s Wagner

According to a contract, written in English and Russian and signed on Nov. 15, 2022, the company, Beijing Yunze Technology Co. Ltd., sold two high-resolution observation satellites belonging to the Chinese space giant Chang Guang Satellite Technology (CGST) to Nika-Frut, a company then part of Prigozhin’s commercial empire. The over $30 million (235 million yuan) price was for the satellites themselves and additional services. The contract also provides for the provision of images on demand, which allowed Wagner to obtain satellite pictures both of Ukraine and areas in Africa where its mercenaries were active, including Libya, Sudan, Central African Republic and Mali, the European security source said, asking not to be named.

An official with U.S. Export-Import Bank has confirmed that they are considering more than $5 billion in space industry funding proposals:

She did not identify any specific proposals that the bank was reviewing, other than there were “more than a handful” under consideration. In June, Declan Ganley, chief executive of Rivada Space Networks, said his company was seeking Ex-Im financing for its satellite constellation, which includes a $2.4 billion contract with satellite manufacturer Terran Orbital and several hundred million dollars more in launches from SpaceX.

The opportunities are vast, credit is certain to start loosening up soon, and now there is a much clearer picture of who can actually perform in this space. I think we’ll see explosive growth in 2024 and beyond.

Responsive Space isn’t just about launch - you have to have payloads ready to go at a moments notice too. Terran Orbital has joined the growing list of New Space players rushing to support this capability:

Terran Orbital has announced the launch of our Responsive Space Initiative. Under this initiative, we are committed to providing our customers with satellite buses within just 30 days and complete satellite systems with integrated payloads within 60 days. There are seven new satellite buses that will be participating in this program.

Our advanced production capabilities through the implementation of automation and robotics are a game changer for the industry. We are standardizing common components which can be stocked and are interchangeable depending on the bus configuration. We proudly design and manufacture 85% of all modules and components that go into a bus today.

And even though New Space companies are increasingly vertically integrated there are complex supply chain issues that have to be navigated to make this possible:

We will be partnering with best-of-breed payload suppliers to stock a wide range of payloads. This will allow us to fulfill any customer requirements, whether it’s Electro-Optical Imaging, Synthetic Aperture Radar, Communications, Hyperspectral, or any other payload with global demand.